Gonsenheim 4–1 Diefflen: Result & Stats

Gonsenheim

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Diefflen

11/2/2025

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 15Sportplatz am Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Gonsenheim55%

×Draw20%

Diefflen25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GonsenheimExpected goals in this matchDiefflen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.52

Gonsenheim

2.31

Diefflen

1.52

Gonsenheim creates 52% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

2.28

creates per match

1.77

1.28

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Gonsenheim

2.28

Diefflen

1.77

allows per match

Gonsenheim

1.28

Diefflen

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gonsenheim+0.00on par

Diefflen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonsenheim ↓

Diefflen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Gonsenheim or draw

75%

Gonsenheim or Diefflen

80%

Draw or Diefflen

45%

Winning margin

Gonsenheim wins by 2+

34%

Diefflen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gonsenheim 1+ goals

90%

Gonsenheim 2+ goals

67%

Gonsenheim 3+ goals

40%

Diefflen 1+ goals

78%

Diefflen 2+ goals

45%

Diefflen 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Gonsenheim (draw refunded)

69%

Diefflen (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonsenheim at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.28 · 78 matches

Diefflen away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonsenheim attack 2.28 + Diefflen defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.31

Diefflen attack 1.77 + Gonsenheim defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gonsenheim scores more

55%

level

20%

Diefflen scores more

25%

Gonsenheim at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff