Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gonsenheim vs Bitburg — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bitburg
Bitburg
9/6/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 9Sportplatz am Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gonsenheim67%
×Draw17%
Bitburg16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gonsenheim
2.69
Bitburg
1.25

Gonsenheim creates 115% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gonsenheim
2.28
Bitburg
1.21

allows per match

Gonsenheim
1.28
Bitburg
3.11

finishing

Gonsenheim+0.00on par
Bitburg+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonsenheim ↓

Bitburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Gonsenheim or draw
84%
Gonsenheim or Bitburg
83%
Draw or Bitburg
33%

Winning margin

Gonsenheim wins by 2+
46%
Bitburg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gonsenheim 1+ goals
93%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
74%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
49%
Bitburg 1+ goals
71%
Bitburg 2+ goals
36%
Bitburg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
81%
Bitburg (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonsenheim at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.28 · 78 matches

Bitburg away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonsenheim attack 2.28 + Bitburg defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.69

Bitburg attack 1.21 + Gonsenheim defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Gonsenheim scores more
67%
level
17%
Bitburg scores more
16%

Gonsenheim at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gonsenheim vs Bitburg

Gonsenheim beat Bitburg 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 6, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Wildpark in Mainz.