Gonsenheim 0–1 Baumholder: Result & Stats

Gonsenheim

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Baumholder

9/23/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 13Sportplatz am Wildpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gonsenheim59%

×Draw20%

Baumholder21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GonsenheimExpected goals in this matchBaumholder

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.22

Gonsenheim

2.19

Baumholder

1.22

Gonsenheim creates 80% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 19 away

2.28

creates per match

1.16

1.28

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Gonsenheim

2.28

Baumholder

1.16

allows per match

Gonsenheim

1.28

Baumholder

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gonsenheim+0.00on par

Baumholder+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonsenheim ↓

Baumholder →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Gonsenheim or draw

79%

Gonsenheim or Baumholder

80%

Draw or Baumholder

41%

Winning margin

Gonsenheim wins by 2+

37%

Baumholder wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gonsenheim 1+ goals

89%

Gonsenheim 2+ goals

64%

Gonsenheim 3+ goals

37%

Baumholder 1+ goals

70%

Baumholder 2+ goals

34%

Baumholder 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gonsenheim (draw refunded)

74%

Baumholder (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonsenheim at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.28 · 78 matches

Baumholder away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonsenheim attack 2.28 + Baumholder defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.19

Baumholder attack 1.16 + Gonsenheim defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gonsenheim scores more

59%

level

20%

Baumholder scores more

21%

Gonsenheim at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff