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Gonio vs Saburtalo II — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Gonio
Gonio
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saburtalo II
Saburtalo II
11/1/2025Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 31Kobuleti Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gonio40%
×Draw25%
Saburtalo II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gonio
1.52
Saburtalo II
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Gonio
1.33
Saburtalo II
1.15

allows per match

Gonio
1.67
Saburtalo II
1.70

finishing

Gonio+0.00on par
Saburtalo II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonio ↓

Saburtalo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gonio or draw
65%
Gonio or Saburtalo II
75%
Draw or Saburtalo II
60%

Winning margin

Gonio wins by 2+
20%
Saburtalo II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gonio 1+ goals
78%
Gonio 2+ goals
45%
Gonio 3+ goals
20%
Saburtalo II 1+ goals
76%
Saburtalo II 2+ goals
41%
Saburtalo II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gonio (draw refunded)
53%
Saburtalo II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonio at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Saburtalo II away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonio attack 1.33 + Saburtalo II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Saburtalo II attack 1.15 + Gonio defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gonio scores more
40%
level
25%
Saburtalo II scores more
35%

Gonio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Gonio 2–0 Saburtalo II

Gonio beat Saburtalo II 2-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Kobuleti Football Center in Kobuleti.