Gondomar 0–1 Santa Clara: Result & Stats

Gondomar

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Clara

10/19/2024

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio de São Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Gondomar42%

×Draw25%

Santa Clara32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GondomarExpected goals in this matchSanta Clara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.26

Gondomar

1.48

Santa Clara

1.26

Gondomar creates 17% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.89

creates per match

1.64

0.89

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Gondomar

1.89

Santa Clara

1.64

allows per match

Gondomar

0.89

Santa Clara

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gondomar+0.00on par

Santa Clara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gondomar ↓

Santa Clara →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gondomar or draw

68%

Gondomar or Santa Clara

75%

Draw or Santa Clara

58%

Winning margin

Gondomar wins by 2+

21%

Santa Clara wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gondomar 1+ goals

77%

Gondomar 2+ goals

43%

Gondomar 3+ goals

19%

Santa Clara 1+ goals

72%

Santa Clara 2+ goals

36%

Santa Clara 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gondomar (draw refunded)

57%

Santa Clara (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gondomar at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Santa Clara away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gondomar attack 1.89 + Santa Clara defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.48

Santa Clara attack 1.64 + Gondomar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gondomar scores more

42%

level

25%

Santa Clara scores more

32%

Gondomar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gondomar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff