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Gondomar vs Leça — Taça de Portugal 2018

Gondomar
Gondomar
FT
2 – 0
Leça
Leça
9/9/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio de São Miguel (Gondomar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Gondomar56%
×Draw23%
Leça21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gondomar
1.84
Leça
1.04

Gondomar creates 77% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gondomar
1.89
Leça
1.20

allows per match

Gondomar
0.89
Leça
1.80

finishing

Gondomar+0.00on par
Leça+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gondomar ↓

Leça →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gondomar or draw
79%
Gondomar or Leça
77%
Draw or Leça
44%

Winning margin

Gondomar wins by 2+
32%
Leça wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gondomar 1+ goals
84%
Gondomar 2+ goals
55%
Gondomar 3+ goals
28%
Leça 1+ goals
65%
Leça 2+ goals
28%
Leça 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gondomar (draw refunded)
73%
Leça (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gondomar at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Leça away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gondomar attack 1.89 + Leça defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.84

Leça attack 1.20 + Gondomar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gondomar scores more
56%
level
23%
Leça scores more
21%

Gondomar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gondomar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gondomar vs Leça

Gondomar beat Leça 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio de São Miguel (Gondomar).