Gondomar 1–2 Cova De Piedade: Result & Stats

Gondomar

1 – 2

Cova De Piedade

9/29/2018

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio de São Miguel (Gondomar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gondomar23%

×Draw21%

Cova De Piedade56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GondomarExpected goals in this matchCova De Piedade

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

2.11

Gondomar

1.28

Cova De Piedade

2.11

Cova De Piedade creates 65% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

1.89

creates per match

3.33

0.89

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Gondomar

1.89

Cova De Piedade

3.33

allows per match

Gondomar

0.89

Cova De Piedade

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gondomar+0.00on par

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gondomar ↓

Cova De Piedade →

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Gondomar or draw

44%

Gondomar or Cova De Piedade

79%

Draw or Cova De Piedade

77%

Winning margin

Gondomar wins by 2+

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Gondomar 1+ goals

72%

Gondomar 2+ goals

37%

Gondomar 3+ goals

14%

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals

88%

Cova De Piedade 2+ goals

62%

Cova De Piedade 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Gondomar (draw refunded)

29%

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gondomar at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 3.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gondomar attack 1.89 + Cova De Piedade defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Cova De Piedade attack 3.33 + Gondomar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gondomar scores more

23%

level

21%

Cova De Piedade scores more

56%

Cova De Piedade at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cova De Piedade will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff