Gomel II 0–1 Minsk II: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Gomel II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Minsk II

7/19/2025

1. Division · Round 16Centralnyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Gomel II29%

×Draw23%

Minsk II49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gomel IIExpected goals in this matchMinsk II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.84

Gomel II

1.36

Minsk II

1.84

Minsk II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 31 away

1.28

creates per match

1.65

2.04

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Gomel II

1.28

Minsk II

1.65

allows per match

Gomel II

2.04

Minsk II

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gomel II+0.00on par

Minsk II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gomel II ↓

Minsk II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Gomel II or draw

51%

Gomel II or Minsk II

77%

Draw or Minsk II

71%

Winning margin

Gomel II wins by 2+

12%

Minsk II wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Gomel II 1+ goals

74%

Gomel II 2+ goals

39%

Gomel II 3+ goals

16%

Minsk II 1+ goals

84%

Minsk II 2+ goals

55%

Minsk II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Gomel II (draw refunded)

37%

Minsk II (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gomel II at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.04 · 25 matches

Minsk II away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gomel II attack 1.28 + Minsk II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Minsk II attack 1.65 + Gomel II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gomel II scores more

29%

level

23%

Minsk II scores more

49%

Minsk II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Minsk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff