Gombe United 2–0 Sunshine Stars: Result & Stats

Gombe United

FT

2 – 0

Sunshine Stars

1/29/2017

NPFL · Round 5Pantami Township Stadium (Gombe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Gombe United55%

×Draw28%

Sunshine Stars17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gombe UnitedExpected goals in this matchSunshine Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.64

Gombe United

1.37

Sunshine Stars

0.64

Gombe United creates 114% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 113 away

1.27

creates per match

0.50

0.78

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Gombe United

1.27

Sunshine Stars

0.50

allows per match

Gombe United

0.78

Sunshine Stars

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gombe United+0.00on par

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gombe United ↓

Sunshine Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Gombe United or draw

83%

Gombe United or Sunshine Stars

72%

Draw or Sunshine Stars

45%

Winning margin

Gombe United wins by 2+

27%

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Gombe United 1+ goals

75%

Gombe United 2+ goals

40%

Gombe United 3+ goals

16%

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals

47%

Sunshine Stars 2+ goals

14%

Sunshine Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Gombe United (draw refunded)

76%

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gombe United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.78 · 60 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.47 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gombe United attack 1.27 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sunshine Stars attack 0.50 + Gombe United defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gombe United scores more

55%

level

28%

Sunshine Stars scores more

17%

Gombe United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gombe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff