Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gombe United vs Sporting Lagos — NPFL 2019

Gombe United
Gombe United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
2/25/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 21Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gombe United58%
×Draw27%
Sporting Lagos16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gombe United
1.46
Sporting Lagos
0.61

Gombe United creates 139% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gombe United
1.28
Sporting Lagos
0.42

allows per match

Gombe United
0.81
Sporting Lagos
1.63

finishing

Gombe United+0.00on par
Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gombe United ↓

Sporting Lagos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gombe United or draw
84%
Gombe United or Sporting Lagos
73%
Draw or Sporting Lagos
42%

Winning margin

Gombe United wins by 2+
30%
Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gombe United 1+ goals
77%
Gombe United 2+ goals
43%
Gombe United 3+ goals
18%
Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
46%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
13%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Gombe United (draw refunded)
79%
Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gombe United at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.81 · 58 matches

Sporting Lagos away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gombe United attack 1.28 + Sporting Lagos defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sporting Lagos attack 0.42 + Gombe United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gombe United scores more
58%
level
27%
Sporting Lagos scores more
16%

Gombe United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gombe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Gombe United 2–0 Sporting Lagos

Gombe United beat Sporting Lagos 2-0 in NPFL on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.