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Gombe United vs Go Round — NPFL 2019

Gombe United
Gombe United
FT
0 – 1
Go Round
Go Round
2/20/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 10Pantami Township Stadium (Gombe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gombe United53%
×Draw28%
Go Round19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gombe United
1.40
Go Round
0.72

Gombe United creates 94% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gombe United
1.25
Go Round
0.64

allows per match

Gombe United
0.80
Go Round
1.55

finishing

Gombe United+0.00on par
Go Round+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gombe United ↓

Go Round →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gombe United or draw
81%
Gombe United or Go Round
72%
Draw or Go Round
47%

Winning margin

Gombe United wins by 2+
26%
Go Round wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gombe United 1+ goals
75%
Gombe United 2+ goals
41%
Gombe United 3+ goals
17%
Go Round 1+ goals
51%
Go Round 2+ goals
16%
Go Round 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gombe United (draw refunded)
73%
Go Round (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gombe United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.80 · 59 matches

Go Round away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gombe United attack 1.25 + Go Round defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Go Round attack 0.64 + Gombe United defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gombe United scores more
53%
level
28%
Go Round scores more
19%

Gombe United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gombe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Gombe United 0–1 Go Round

Go Round beat Gombe United 1-0 in NPFL on February 20, 2019.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium (Gombe).