Gombe United 0–3 Doma United: Result & Stats | NPFL

Gombe United

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Doma United

11/5/2023

NPFL · Round 7Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Gombe United58%

×Draw26%

Doma United16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gombe UnitedExpected goals in this matchDoma United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.64

Gombe United

1.48

Doma United

0.64

Gombe United creates 131% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 28 away

1.28

creates per match

0.46

0.81

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Gombe United

1.28

Doma United

0.46

allows per match

Gombe United

0.81

Doma United

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gombe United+0.00on par

Doma United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gombe United ↓

Doma United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Gombe United or draw

84%

Gombe United or Doma United

74%

Draw or Doma United

42%

Winning margin

Gombe United wins by 2+

30%

Doma United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Gombe United 1+ goals

77%

Gombe United 2+ goals

43%

Gombe United 3+ goals

19%

Doma United 1+ goals

47%

Doma United 2+ goals

14%

Doma United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Gombe United (draw refunded)

78%

Doma United (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gombe United at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.81 · 58 matches

Doma United away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gombe United attack 1.28 + Doma United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Doma United attack 0.46 + Gombe United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gombe United scores more

58%

level

26%

Doma United scores more

16%

Gombe United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gombe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff