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Gombe United vs Bendel Insurance — NPFL 2019

Gombe United
Gombe United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bendel Insurance
Bendel Insurance
4/30/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 16Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Gombe United48%
×Draw30%
Bendel Insurance22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gombe United
1.21
Bendel Insurance
0.71

Gombe United creates 70% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 79 away

creates per match

Gombe United
1.28
Bendel Insurance
0.61

allows per match

Gombe United
0.81
Bendel Insurance
1.13

finishing

Gombe United+0.00on par
Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gombe United ↓

Bendel Insurance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Gombe United or draw
78%
Gombe United or Bendel Insurance
70%
Draw or Bendel Insurance
52%

Winning margin

Gombe United wins by 2+
21%
Bendel Insurance wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gombe United 1+ goals
70%
Gombe United 2+ goals
34%
Gombe United 3+ goals
12%
Bendel Insurance 1+ goals
51%
Bendel Insurance 2+ goals
16%
Bendel Insurance 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gombe United (draw refunded)
69%
Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gombe United at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.81 · 58 matches

Bendel Insurance away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gombe United attack 1.28 + Bendel Insurance defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bendel Insurance attack 0.61 + Gombe United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gombe United scores more
48%
level
30%
Bendel Insurance scores more
22%

Gombe United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gombe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+4'
I. Seriki
46'
S. Bello← S. Bello
46'
W. Mamud← W. Mamud
46'
C. Umeh← C. Umeh
57'
S. Meelubari← S. Meelubari
57'
A. Ogunye← A. Ogunye
61'
S. Meelubari
71'
A. Ogbonna
75'
S. Shuaibu← S. Shuaibu
90+5'
G. Ajiji← G. Ajiji

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gombe United vs Bendel Insurance

Gombe United and Bendel Insurance drew 0-0 in NPFL on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.