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Gombe United vs Bayelsa United — NPFL 2019

Gombe United
Gombe United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bayelsa United
Bayelsa United
1/21/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 19Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Gombe United52%
×Draw28%
Bayelsa United20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gombe United
1.34
Bayelsa United
0.71

Gombe United creates 89% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 66 away

creates per match

Gombe United
1.28
Bayelsa United
0.61

allows per match

Gombe United
0.81
Bayelsa United
1.41

finishing

Gombe United+0.00on par
Bayelsa United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gombe United ↓

Bayelsa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gombe United or draw
80%
Gombe United or Bayelsa United
72%
Draw or Bayelsa United
48%

Winning margin

Gombe United wins by 2+
25%
Bayelsa United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gombe United 1+ goals
74%
Gombe United 2+ goals
39%
Gombe United 3+ goals
15%
Bayelsa United 1+ goals
51%
Bayelsa United 2+ goals
16%
Bayelsa United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gombe United (draw refunded)
72%
Bayelsa United (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gombe United at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.81 · 58 matches

Bayelsa United away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.41 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gombe United attack 1.28 + Bayelsa United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bayelsa United attack 0.61 + Gombe United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gombe United scores more
52%
level
28%
Bayelsa United scores more
20%

Gombe United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gombe United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gombe United vs Bayelsa United

Gombe United and Bayelsa United drew 1-1 in NPFL on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.