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Golspie Sutherland vs Coldstream — FA Cup 2019

Golspie Sutherland
Golspie Sutherland
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Coldstream
Coldstream
8/30/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundKing George V Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Golspie Sutherland33%
×Draw21%
Coldstream46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Golspie Sutherland
1.75
Coldstream
2.08

Coldstream creates 19% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Coldstream
1.50

allows per match

Golspie Sutherland
2.67
Coldstream
3.50

finishing

Golspie Sutherland+0.00on par
Coldstream+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golspie Sutherland ↓

Coldstream →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Golspie Sutherland or draw
54%
Golspie Sutherland or Coldstream
79%
Draw or Coldstream
67%

Winning margin

Golspie Sutherland wins by 2+
17%
Coldstream wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Golspie Sutherland 1+ goals
83%
Golspie Sutherland 2+ goals
52%
Golspie Sutherland 3+ goals
25%
Coldstream 1+ goals
87%
Coldstream 2+ goals
61%
Coldstream 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Golspie Sutherland (draw refunded)
42%
Coldstream (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golspie Sutherland at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Coldstream away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golspie Sutherland attack 0.00 + Coldstream defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Coldstream attack 1.50 + Golspie Sutherland defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Golspie Sutherland scores more
33%
level
21%
Coldstream scores more
46%

Coldstream at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coldstream will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Golspie Sutherland 0–3 Coldstream

Coldstream beat Golspie Sutherland 3-0 in FA Cup on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at King George V Park in Golspie.