Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Golspie Sutherland vs Civil Service Strollers — FA Cup 2019

Golspie Sutherland
Golspie Sutherland
FT
0 – 3
Civil Service Strollers
Civil Service Strollers
9/18/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundKing George V Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Golspie Sutherland15%
×Draw19%
Civil Service Strollers66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Golspie Sutherland
1.00
Civil Service Strollers
2.27

Civil Service Strollers creates 127% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Civil Service Strollers
1.86

allows per match

Golspie Sutherland
2.67
Civil Service Strollers
2.00

finishing

Golspie Sutherland+0.00on par
Civil Service Strollers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golspie Sutherland ↓

Civil Service Strollers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Golspie Sutherland or draw
34%
Golspie Sutherland or Civil Service Strollers
81%
Draw or Civil Service Strollers
85%

Winning margin

Golspie Sutherland wins by 2+
5%
Civil Service Strollers wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Golspie Sutherland 1+ goals
63%
Golspie Sutherland 2+ goals
26%
Golspie Sutherland 3+ goals
8%
Civil Service Strollers 1+ goals
90%
Civil Service Strollers 2+ goals
66%
Civil Service Strollers 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Golspie Sutherland (draw refunded)
19%
Civil Service Strollers (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golspie Sutherland at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Civil Service Strollers away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golspie Sutherland attack 0.00 + Civil Service Strollers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Civil Service Strollers attack 1.86 + Golspie Sutherland defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Golspie Sutherland scores more
15%
level
19%
Civil Service Strollers scores more
66%

Civil Service Strollers at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Civil Service Strollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Golspie Sutherland 0–3 Civil Service Strollers

Civil Service Strollers beat Golspie Sutherland 3-0 in FA Cup on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at King George V Park in Golspie.