Golspie Sutherland 0–2 Carluke Rovers

Golspie Sutherland

0 – 2

Carluke Rovers

8/31/2024

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundKing George V Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Golspie Sutherland4%

×Draw14%

Carluke Rovers82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Golspie SutherlandExpected goals in this matchCarluke Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.34

2.33

Golspie Sutherland

0.34

Carluke Rovers

2.33

Carluke Rovers creates 585% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.00

creates per match

2.00

2.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Golspie Sutherland

0.00

Carluke Rovers

2.00

allows per match

Golspie Sutherland

2.67

Carluke Rovers

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Golspie Sutherland+0.00on par

Carluke Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golspie Sutherland ↓

Carluke Rovers →

0–07%

0–116%

0–219%

0–315%

0–49%

1–02%

1–16%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–00%

2–11%

2–21%

2–31%

2–40%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (19%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Golspie Sutherland or draw

18%

Golspie Sutherland or Carluke Rovers

86%

Draw or Carluke Rovers

96%

Winning margin

Golspie Sutherland wins by 2+

Carluke Rovers wins by 2+

59%

Team goals

Golspie Sutherland 1+ goals

29%

Golspie Sutherland 2+ goals

Golspie Sutherland 3+ goals

Carluke Rovers 1+ goals

90%

Carluke Rovers 2+ goals

67%

Carluke Rovers 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Golspie Sutherland (draw refunded)

Carluke Rovers (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Golspie Sutherland at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Carluke Rovers away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Golspie Sutherland attack 0.00 + Carluke Rovers defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.34

Carluke Rovers attack 2.00 + Golspie Sutherland defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 82%?"

Golspie Sutherland scores more

level

14%

Carluke Rovers scores more

82%

Carluke Rovers at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Carluke Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff