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Golling vs UFC Hallein — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Golling
Golling
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UFC Hallein
UFC Hallein
4/19/2025Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 22Sportplatz Golling

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Golling36%
×Draw22%
UFC Hallein42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Golling
1.78
UFC Hallein
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 44 away

creates per match

Golling
2.20
UFC Hallein
1.93

allows per match

Golling
1.96
UFC Hallein
1.36

finishing

Golling+0.00on par
UFC Hallein+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golling ↓

UFC Hallein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Golling or draw
58%
Golling or UFC Hallein
78%
Draw or UFC Hallein
64%

Winning margin

Golling wins by 2+
18%
UFC Hallein wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Golling 1+ goals
83%
Golling 2+ goals
53%
Golling 3+ goals
26%
UFC Hallein 1+ goals
86%
UFC Hallein 2+ goals
58%
UFC Hallein 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Golling (draw refunded)
46%
UFC Hallein (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golling at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.96 · 54 matches

UFC Hallein away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golling attack 2.20 + UFC Hallein defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.78

UFC Hallein attack 1.93 + Golling defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Golling scores more
36%
level
22%
UFC Hallein scores more
42%

UFC Hallein at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UFC Hallein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Golling 0–0 UFC Hallein

Golling and UFC Hallein drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Golling in Golling.