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Golling vs Seekirchen — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Golling
Golling
FT
0 – 5
Seekirchen
Seekirchen
8/11/2024Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 2Sportplatz Golling

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Golling24%
×Draw19%
Seekirchen57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Golling
1.54
Seekirchen
2.46

Seekirchen creates 60% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 30 away

creates per match

Golling
2.20
Seekirchen
2.97

allows per match

Golling
1.96
Seekirchen
0.87

finishing

Golling+0.00on par
Seekirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golling ↓

Seekirchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Golling or draw
43%
Golling or Seekirchen
81%
Draw or Seekirchen
76%

Winning margin

Golling wins by 2+
11%
Seekirchen wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Golling 1+ goals
79%
Golling 2+ goals
45%
Golling 3+ goals
20%
Seekirchen 1+ goals
91%
Seekirchen 2+ goals
70%
Seekirchen 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Golling (draw refunded)
29%
Seekirchen (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golling at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.96 · 54 matches

Seekirchen away — creates 2.97, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golling attack 2.20 + Seekirchen defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.54

Seekirchen attack 2.97 + Golling defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Golling scores more
24%
level
19%
Seekirchen scores more
57%

Seekirchen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Seekirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Golling 0–5 Seekirchen

Seekirchen beat Golling 5-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Golling in Golling.