Golling 1–2 Salzburger AK: Result & Stats

Golling

FT

1 – 2

Salzburger AK

9/3/2023

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 6Sportplatz Golling

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Golling47%

×Draw21%

Salzburger AK32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GollingExpected goals in this matchSalzburger AK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.70

Golling

2.11

Salzburger AK

1.70

Golling creates 24% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 45 away

2.20

creates per match

1.44

1.96

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Golling

2.20

Salzburger AK

1.44

allows per match

Golling

1.96

Salzburger AK

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Golling+0.00on par

Salzburger AK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golling ↓

Salzburger AK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Golling or draw

68%

Golling or Salzburger AK

79%

Draw or Salzburger AK

53%

Winning margin

Golling wins by 2+

27%

Salzburger AK wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Golling 1+ goals

88%

Golling 2+ goals

62%

Golling 3+ goals

35%

Salzburger AK 1+ goals

82%

Salzburger AK 2+ goals

51%

Salzburger AK 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Golling (draw refunded)

60%

Salzburger AK (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golling at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.96 · 54 matches

Salzburger AK away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golling attack 2.20 + Salzburger AK defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.11

Salzburger AK attack 1.44 + Golling defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Golling scores more

47%

level

21%

Salzburger AK scores more

32%

Golling at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Golling will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff