Golling 1–2 Grödig: Result & Stats | League #688

Golling

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Grödig

M. Sandmayr 62'

O. Surr 89'

B. Musljija 4'

6/3/2023

League #688 · Salzburg - 2nd Phase - 9Sportplatz Golling

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Golling51%

×Draw21%

Grödig29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GollingExpected goals in this matchGrödig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.63

Golling

2.20

Grödig

1.63

Golling creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

2.40

creates per match

1.25

2.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Golling

2.40

Grödig

1.25

allows per match

Golling

2.00

Grödig

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Golling+0.00on par

Grödig+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golling ↓

Grödig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Golling or draw

71%

Golling or Grödig

79%

Draw or Grödig

49%

Winning margin

Golling wins by 2+

30%

Grödig wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Golling 1+ goals

89%

Golling 2+ goals

64%

Golling 3+ goals

37%

Grödig 1+ goals

80%

Grödig 2+ goals

48%

Grödig 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Golling (draw refunded)

64%

Grödig (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golling at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

Grödig away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golling attack 2.40 + Grödig defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Grödig attack 1.25 + Golling defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Golling scores more

51%

level

21%

Grödig scores more

29%

Golling at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Golling will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

B. Musljija

31'

F. Brückler← D. Eder

31'

M. Auer← L. Poindl

35'

F. Lienbacher← J. Steiner

46'

F. Dygruber← A. Huijberts

58'

O. Surr← T. Füreder

62'

I. Juric← D. Moric

62'

M. Sandmayr

75'

L. Tischler← B. Musljija

82'

F. Ratzer← M. Lürzer

89'

O. Surr

Golling

Grödig

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Schützinger

31'▲F. Brückler←▼D. Eder

31'▲M. Auer←▼L. Poindl

35'▲F. Lienbacher←▼J. Steiner

46'▲F. Dygruber←▼A. Huijberts

62'▲I. Juric←▼D. Moric

Golling substitutes

BrücklerAuerLienbacherDygruberJuricPilotto

Manager: A. Deliu

58'▲O. Surr←▼T. Füreder

75'▲L. Tischler←▼B. Musljija

82'▲F. Ratzer←▼M. Lürzer

Grödig substitutes

SurrTischlerRatzerAksoyRadwanovskyGrabovica