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Golling vs Bürmoos — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Golling
Golling
FT
1 – 3
Bürmoos
Bürmoos
5/17/2024Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 26Sportplatz Golling

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Golling41%
×Draw21%
Bürmoos38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Golling
1.93
Bürmoos
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 84 away

creates per match

Golling
2.20
Bürmoos
1.76

allows per match

Golling
1.96
Bürmoos
1.65

finishing

Golling+0.00on par
Bürmoos+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golling ↓

Bürmoos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Golling or draw
62%
Golling or Bürmoos
79%
Draw or Bürmoos
59%

Winning margin

Golling wins by 2+
22%
Bürmoos wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Golling 1+ goals
85%
Golling 2+ goals
57%
Golling 3+ goals
30%
Bürmoos 1+ goals
84%
Bürmoos 2+ goals
55%
Bürmoos 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Golling (draw refunded)
52%
Bürmoos (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golling at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.96 · 54 matches

Bürmoos away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.65 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golling attack 2.20 + Bürmoos defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.93

Bürmoos attack 1.76 + Golling defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Golling scores more
41%
level
21%
Bürmoos scores more
38%

Golling at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Golling will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Golling 1–3 Bürmoos

Bürmoos beat Golling 3-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Golling in Golling.