Golden Warriors 1–2 True Democracy: Result & Stats

Golden Warriors

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

True Democracy

3/7/2026

Division One League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Golden Warriors40%

×Draw27%

True Democracy33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Golden WarriorsExpected goals in this matchTrue Democracy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.17

Golden Warriors

1.30

True Democracy

1.17

Golden Warriors creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

0.93

1.40

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Golden Warriors

1.40

True Democracy

0.93

allows per match

Golden Warriors

1.40

True Democracy

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Golden Warriors+0.00on par

True Democracy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golden Warriors ↓

True Democracy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Golden Warriors or draw

67%

Golden Warriors or True Democracy

73%

Draw or True Democracy

60%

Winning margin

Golden Warriors wins by 2+

18%

True Democracy wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Golden Warriors 1+ goals

73%

Golden Warriors 2+ goals

37%

Golden Warriors 3+ goals

14%

True Democracy 1+ goals

69%

True Democracy 2+ goals

33%

True Democracy 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Golden Warriors (draw refunded)

54%

True Democracy (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golden Warriors at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

True Democracy away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golden Warriors attack 1.40 + True Democracy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

True Democracy attack 0.93 + Golden Warriors defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Golden Warriors scores more

40%

level

27%

True Democracy scores more

33%

Golden Warriors at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Golden Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff