Golden State Force 1–2 Project 51O: Result & Stats

Golden State Force

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Project 51O

7/4/2022

USL League Two · Round 59Covina District Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Golden State Force51%

×Draw22%

Project 51O27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Golden State ForceExpected goals in this matchProject 51O

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.36

Golden State Force

1.96

Project 51O

1.36

Golden State Force creates 44% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 35 away

1.92

creates per match

1.80

0.92

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Golden State Force

1.92

Project 51O

1.80

allows per match

Golden State Force

0.92

Project 51O

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Golden State Force+0.00on par

Project 51O+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golden State Force ↓

Project 51O →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Golden State Force or draw

73%

Golden State Force or Project 51O

78%

Draw or Project 51O

49%

Winning margin

Golden State Force wins by 2+

29%

Project 51O wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Golden State Force 1+ goals

86%

Golden State Force 2+ goals

58%

Golden State Force 3+ goals

31%

Project 51O 1+ goals

74%

Project 51O 2+ goals

39%

Project 51O 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Golden State Force (draw refunded)

66%

Project 51O (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golden State Force at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Project 51O away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golden State Force attack 1.92 + Project 51O defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Project 51O attack 1.80 + Golden State Force defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Golden State Force scores more

51%

level

22%

Project 51O scores more

27%

Golden State Force at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Golden State Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Golden State Force 1–2 Project 51O

Project 51O beat Golden State Force 2-1 in USL League Two on July 4, 2022.

The match was played at Covina District Field in Covina, California.

Golden State Force vs Project 51O — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Golden State Force 1–2 Project 51O