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Golden State Force vs Flint City Bucks — USL League Two 2018

Golden State Force
Golden State Force
FT
0 – 1
Flint City Bucks
Flint City Bucksadvanced
7/27/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Championship - Semi-finalsAtwood Stadium (Flint, Michigan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Golden State Force38%
×Draw24%
Flint City Bucks38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Golden State Force
1.50
Flint City Bucks
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 51 away

creates per match

Golden State Force
1.92
Flint City Bucks
2.10

allows per match

Golden State Force
0.92
Flint City Bucks
1.08

finishing

Golden State Force+0.00on par
Flint City Bucks+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golden State Force ↓

Flint City Bucks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Golden State Force or draw
62%
Golden State Force or Flint City Bucks
76%
Draw or Flint City Bucks
62%

Winning margin

Golden State Force wins by 2+
18%
Flint City Bucks wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Golden State Force 1+ goals
78%
Golden State Force 2+ goals
44%
Golden State Force 3+ goals
19%
Flint City Bucks 1+ goals
78%
Flint City Bucks 2+ goals
44%
Flint City Bucks 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Golden State Force (draw refunded)
50%
Flint City Bucks (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golden State Force at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Flint City Bucks away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golden State Force attack 1.92 + Flint City Bucks defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.50

Flint City Bucks attack 2.10 + Golden State Force defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Golden State Force scores more
38%
level
24%
Flint City Bucks scores more
38%

Golden State Force at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Golden State Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Golden State Force vs Flint City Bucks

Flint City Bucks beat Golden State Force 1-0 in USL League Two on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at Atwood Stadium (Flint, Michigan).