Golden Kicks 1–0 Koforidua: Result & Stats

Golden Kicks

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Koforidua

10/19/2025

Division One League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Golden Kicks25%

×Draw33%

Koforidua42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Golden KicksExpected goals in this matchKoforidua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

1.03

Golden Kicks

0.73

Koforidua

1.03

Koforidua creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

0.73

creates per match

1.40

0.67

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Golden Kicks

0.73

Koforidua

1.40

allows per match

Golden Kicks

0.67

Koforidua

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Golden Kicks+0.00on par

Koforidua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golden Kicks ↓

Koforidua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–118%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Golden Kicks or draw

58%

Golden Kicks or Koforidua

67%

Draw or Koforidua

75%

Winning margin

Golden Kicks wins by 2+

7%

Koforidua wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Golden Kicks 1+ goals

52%

Golden Kicks 2+ goals

17%

Golden Kicks 3+ goals

4%

Koforidua 1+ goals

64%

Koforidua 2+ goals

28%

Koforidua 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Golden Kicks (draw refunded)

38%

Koforidua (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golden Kicks at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Koforidua away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golden Kicks attack 0.73 + Koforidua defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.73

Koforidua attack 1.40 + Golden Kicks defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Golden Kicks scores more

25%

level

33%

Koforidua scores more

42%

Koforidua at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Koforidua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff