Golden Arrows vs Orbit College — Premier Soccer League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Golden Arrows45%
Orbit College25%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Golden Arrows creates 46% more chances
Season form · 121 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under65
- Over35
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Golden Arrows ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Golden Arrows at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.99 · 121 matches
Orbit College away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Golden Arrows attack 1.07 + Orbit College defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.24
Orbit College attack 0.71 + Golden Arrows defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Golden Arrows at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Golden Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Orlando Pirates
Mamelodi Sundowns
Kaizer Chiefs
Amazulu
Sekhukhune UnitedGolden Arrows
Polokwane City
Durban City
Stellenbosch
Siwelele
Richards Bay
TS Galaxy
Magesi
Chippa United
Marumo GallantsOrbit College
Milford FC
Cape Town CityIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Golden Arrows host Orbit College on Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the Premier Soccer League 2018/2019 season.
Premier Soccer League: Golden Arrows 3–0 Orbit College
Golden Arrows beat Orbit College 3-0 in Premier Soccer League on September 27, 2025.
Goals: J. Dion (4'), L. Ndlovu (23'), J. Karelse (72').
Golden Arrows controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 13.
The match was played at Sugar Ray Xulu Stadium in Durban.