Golden Arrows 2–1 Maritzburg Utd: Result & Stats

Golden Arrows

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Maritzburg Utd

1/30/2021

Premier Soccer League · Round 11Sugar Ray Xulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Golden Arrows43%

×Draw31%

Maritzburg Utd26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Golden ArrowsExpected goals in this matchMaritzburg Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.81

Golden Arrows

1.12

Maritzburg Utd

0.81

Golden Arrows creates 38% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 77 away

1.08

creates per match

0.64

0.99

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Golden Arrows

1.08

Maritzburg Utd

0.64

allows per match

Golden Arrows

0.99

Maritzburg Utd

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Golden Arrows+0.00on par

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Golden Arrows ↓

Maritzburg Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Golden Arrows or draw

74%

Golden Arrows or Maritzburg Utd

69%

Draw or Maritzburg Utd

57%

Winning margin

Golden Arrows wins by 2+

18%

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Golden Arrows 1+ goals

67%

Golden Arrows 2+ goals

31%

Golden Arrows 3+ goals

10%

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals

56%

Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals

19%

Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Golden Arrows (draw refunded)

62%

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Golden Arrows at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.99 · 119 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Golden Arrows attack 1.08 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.12

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Golden Arrows defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Golden Arrows scores more

43%

level

31%

Maritzburg Utd scores more

26%

Golden Arrows at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Golden Arrows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff