Gold Coast Knights 9–0 WDSC Wolves: Result & Stats

Gold Coast Knights

FT

9 – 0

HT: 6 – 0

WDSC Wolves

2/23/2024

Queensland NPL · Round 1Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Gold Coast Knights55%

×Draw20%

WDSC Wolves25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gold Coast KnightsExpected goals in this matchWDSC Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.48

Gold Coast Knights

2.25

WDSC Wolves

1.48

Gold Coast Knights creates 52% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 32 away

2.29

creates per match

1.94

1.01

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Gold Coast Knights

2.29

WDSC Wolves

1.94

allows per match

Gold Coast Knights

1.01

WDSC Wolves

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gold Coast Knights+0.00on par

WDSC Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gold Coast Knights ↓

WDSC Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Gold Coast Knights or draw

75%

Gold Coast Knights or WDSC Wolves

80%

Draw or WDSC Wolves

45%

Winning margin

Gold Coast Knights wins by 2+

33%

WDSC Wolves wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gold Coast Knights 1+ goals

89%

Gold Coast Knights 2+ goals

65%

Gold Coast Knights 3+ goals

39%

WDSC Wolves 1+ goals

77%

WDSC Wolves 2+ goals

43%

WDSC Wolves 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Gold Coast Knights (draw refunded)

69%

WDSC Wolves (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gold Coast Knights at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.01 · 100 matches

WDSC Wolves away — creates 1.94, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gold Coast Knights attack 2.29 + WDSC Wolves defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.25

WDSC Wolves attack 1.94 + Gold Coast Knights defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gold Coast Knights scores more

55%

level

20%

WDSC Wolves scores more

25%

Gold Coast Knights at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gold Coast Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff