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Gold Coast Knights vs Rochedale Rovers — Queensland NPL 2026

Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rochedale Rovers
Rochedale Rovers
3/15/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 4Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Gold Coast Knights61%
×Draw21%
Rochedale Rovers18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gold Coast Knights
2.06
Rochedale Rovers
1.04

Gold Coast Knights creates 98% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 31 away

creates per match

Gold Coast Knights
2.28
Rochedale Rovers
1.06

allows per match

Gold Coast Knights
1.03
Rochedale Rovers
1.84

finishing

Gold Coast Knights+0.00on par
Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gold Coast Knights ↓

Rochedale Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gold Coast Knights or draw
82%
Gold Coast Knights or Rochedale Rovers
79%
Draw or Rochedale Rovers
39%

Winning margin

Gold Coast Knights wins by 2+
37%
Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gold Coast Knights 1+ goals
87%
Gold Coast Knights 2+ goals
61%
Gold Coast Knights 3+ goals
34%
Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals
65%
Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals
28%
Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gold Coast Knights (draw refunded)
77%
Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gold Coast Knights at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.03 · 98 matches

Rochedale Rovers away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gold Coast Knights attack 2.28 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.06

Rochedale Rovers attack 1.06 + Gold Coast Knights defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Gold Coast Knights scores more
61%
level
21%
Rochedale Rovers scores more
18%

Gold Coast Knights at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Gold Coast Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gold Coast Knights vs Rochedale Rovers

Gold Coast Knights beat Rochedale Rovers 2-0 in Queensland NPL on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1 in Gold Coast.