Gold Coast Knights vs Magpies Crusaders — Queensland NPL 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Gold Coast Knights70%
Magpies Crusaders13%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Gold Coast Knights creates 145% more chances
Season form · 99 home / 30 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over70
- Under30
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Gold Coast Knights ↓
Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Gold Coast Knights at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.02 · 99 matches
Magpies Crusaders away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Gold Coast Knights attack 2.30 + Magpies Crusaders defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.60
Magpies Crusaders attack 1.10 + Gold Coast Knights defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 70%?"
Gold Coast Knights at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 70% does not mean "Gold Coast Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Peninsula Power
OlympicGold Coast Knights
Lions
Moreton Bay United
Brisbane Roar II
Eastern Suburbs
Brisbane Strikers
SC Wanderers
Redlands United
Gold Coast United
Capalaba
Brisbane CityMagpies CrusadersIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Gold Coast Knights host Magpies Crusaders on Saturday, 2 February 2019 at 08:30. The match is part of the Queensland NPL 2019/2020 season.
Queensland NPL: Gold Coast Knights 1–1 Magpies Crusaders
Gold Coast Knights and Magpies Crusaders drew 1-1 in Queensland NPL on February 2, 2019.
The match was played at Gold Coast Croatia Sports Centre in Gold Coast.