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Gold Coast Knights vs Logan Lightning — Queensland NPL 2026

Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
A. Poljak 81' (pen), 77'
Sauverain Jacob 24'
T. Martin 14' (OG)
7/19/2022Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 12Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Gold Coast Knights52%
×Draw21%
Logan Lightning27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gold Coast Knights
2.10
Logan Lightning
1.46

Gold Coast Knights creates 44% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 24 away

creates per match

Gold Coast Knights
2.25
Logan Lightning
1.88

allows per match

Gold Coast Knights
1.04
Logan Lightning
1.96

finishing

Gold Coast Knights+0.00on par
Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gold Coast Knights ↓

Logan Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gold Coast Knights or draw
73%
Gold Coast Knights or Logan Lightning
79%
Draw or Logan Lightning
48%

Winning margin

Gold Coast Knights wins by 2+
31%
Logan Lightning wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gold Coast Knights 1+ goals
88%
Gold Coast Knights 2+ goals
62%
Gold Coast Knights 3+ goals
35%
Logan Lightning 1+ goals
77%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
43%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gold Coast Knights (draw refunded)
66%
Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gold Coast Knights at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.04 · 96 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gold Coast Knights attack 2.25 + Logan Lightning defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.10

Logan Lightning attack 1.88 + Gold Coast Knights defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gold Coast Knights scores more
52%
level
21%
Logan Lightning scores more
27%

Gold Coast Knights at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gold Coast Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
T. MartinOwn goal
24'
Sauverain Jacob
76'
N. Sanz
77'
A. Poljak
81'
A. PoljakPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Gold Coast Knights 2–2 Logan Lightning

Gold Coast Knights and Logan Lightning drew 2-2 in Queensland NPL on July 19, 2022.

Goals: T. Martin (14' o.g.), Sauverain Jacob (24'), A. Poljak (77', 81' pen).

The match was played at Gold Coast Croatian Sports Centre 1 in Gold Coast.