Gol Gohar 1–2 ZOB Ahan: Result & Stats

Gol Gohar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

ZOB Ahan

6/1/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 30Gol Gohar Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Gol Gohar41%

×Draw30%

ZOB Ahan29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gol GoharExpected goals in this matchZOB Ahan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.94

Gol Gohar

1.18

ZOB Ahan

0.94

Gol Gohar creates 26% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 116 away

1.28

creates per match

0.91

0.97

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Gol Gohar

1.28

ZOB Ahan

0.91

allows per match

Gol Gohar

0.97

ZOB Ahan

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

ZOB Ahan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw

71%

Gol Gohar or ZOB Ahan

70%

Draw or ZOB Ahan

59%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+

18%

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals

69%

Gol Gohar 2+ goals

33%

Gol Gohar 3+ goals

12%

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals

61%

ZOB Ahan 2+ goals

24%

ZOB Ahan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)

59%

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 101 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.28 + ZOB Ahan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

ZOB Ahan attack 0.91 + Gol Gohar defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gol Gohar scores more

41%

level

30%

ZOB Ahan scores more

29%

Gol Gohar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff