Gol Gohar 2–1 Sanat Naft: Result & Stats

Gol Gohar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sanat Naft

2/28/2022

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 20Gol Gohar Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Gol Gohar46%

×Draw29%

Sanat Naft25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gol GoharExpected goals in this matchSanat Naft

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.83

Gol Gohar

1.25

Sanat Naft

0.83

Gol Gohar creates 51% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 91 away

1.28

creates per match

0.69

0.97

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Gol Gohar

1.28

Sanat Naft

0.69

allows per match

Gol Gohar

0.97

Sanat Naft

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Sanat Naft →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw

75%

Gol Gohar or Sanat Naft

71%

Draw or Sanat Naft

54%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+

21%

Sanat Naft wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals

71%

Gol Gohar 2+ goals

36%

Gol Gohar 3+ goals

13%

Sanat Naft 1+ goals

56%

Sanat Naft 2+ goals

20%

Sanat Naft 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)

65%

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 101 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.28 + Sanat Naft defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sanat Naft attack 0.69 + Gol Gohar defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gol Gohar scores more

46%

level

29%

Sanat Naft scores more

25%

Gol Gohar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff