Gol Gohar 2–1 Paykan: Result & Stats

Gol Gohar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Paykan

2/27/2023

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 21Gol Gohar Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Gol Gohar43%

×Draw29%

Paykan28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gol GoharExpected goals in this matchPaykan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.94

Gol Gohar

1.23

Paykan

0.94

Gol Gohar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 100 away

1.28

creates per match

0.91

0.97

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Gol Gohar

1.28

Paykan

0.91

allows per match

Gol Gohar

0.97

Paykan

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Paykan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw

72%

Gol Gohar or Paykan

71%

Draw or Paykan

57%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+

19%

Paykan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals

71%

Gol Gohar 2+ goals

35%

Gol Gohar 3+ goals

13%

Paykan 1+ goals

61%

Paykan 2+ goals

24%

Paykan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)

60%

Paykan (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 100 matches

Paykan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.28 + Paykan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Paykan attack 0.91 + Gol Gohar defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gol Gohar scores more

43%

level

29%

Paykan scores more

28%

Gol Gohar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff