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Gol Gohar vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
FT
2 – 1
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
8/18/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Gol Gohar Sport Complex (Sirjan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gol Gohar60%
×Draw21%
Mes Kerman19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gol Gohar
2.02
Mes Kerman
1.04

Gol Gohar creates 94% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 102 away

creates per match

Gol Gohar
3.33
Mes Kerman
0.76

allows per match

Gol Gohar
1.33
Mes Kerman
0.72

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw
81%
Gol Gohar or Mes Kerman
79%
Draw or Mes Kerman
40%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+
36%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals
87%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
60%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
33%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
65%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
28%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
76%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 3.33 + Mes Kerman defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 2.02

Mes Kerman attack 0.76 + Gol Gohar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gol Gohar scores more
60%
level
21%
Mes Kerman scores more
19%

Gol Gohar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Gol Gohar 2–1 Mes Kerman

Gol Gohar beat Mes Kerman 2-1 in Azadegan League on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Gol Gohar Sport Complex (Sirjan).