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Gol Gohar vs Malavan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malavan
Malavan
1/20/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 16Sardar Soleimani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Gol Gohar45%
×Draw30%
Malavan25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gol Gohar
1.21
Malavan
0.83

Gol Gohar creates 46% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 54 away

creates per match

Gol Gohar
1.28
Malavan
0.69

allows per match

Gol Gohar
0.97
Malavan
1.13

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw
75%
Gol Gohar or Malavan
70%
Draw or Malavan
55%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+
20%
Malavan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals
70%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
34%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
12%
Malavan 1+ goals
56%
Malavan 2+ goals
20%
Malavan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
64%
Malavan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 101 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.28 + Malavan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Malavan attack 0.69 + Gol Gohar defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gol Gohar scores more
45%
level
30%
Malavan scores more
25%

Gol Gohar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Gol Gohar 1–0 Malavan

Gol Gohar beat Malavan 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on January 20, 2025.

The match was played at Sardar Soleimani Stadium in Shahr-e Babak.