Gol Gohar 2–0 Esteghlal Khuzestan: Result & Stats

Gol Gohar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Esteghlal Khuzestan

8/22/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 2Gol Gohar Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Gol Gohar50%

×Draw28%

Esteghlal Khuzestan22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gol GoharExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal Khuzestan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.80

Gol Gohar

1.37

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.80

Gol Gohar creates 71% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 56 away

1.28

creates per match

0.63

0.97

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Gol Gohar

1.28

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.63

allows per match

Gol Gohar

0.97

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw

78%

Gol Gohar or Esteghlal Khuzestan

72%

Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan

50%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+

24%

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals

75%

Gol Gohar 2+ goals

40%

Gol Gohar 3+ goals

16%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals

55%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals

19%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)

70%

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 101 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.28 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.37

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.63 + Gol Gohar defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gol Gohar scores more

50%

level

28%

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more

22%

Gol Gohar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff