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Gol Gohar vs Arvand Khorramshahr FC — Azadegan League 2018

Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
FT
3 – 0
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
10/28/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 10Imam Ali Stadium (Sirjan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gol Gohar60%
×Draw24%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gol Gohar
1.67
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.73

Gol Gohar creates 129% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gol Gohar
1.67
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.73

allows per match

Gol Gohar
0.73
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
1.67

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par
Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Arvand Khorramshahr FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw
84%
Gol Gohar or Arvand Khorramshahr FC
76%
Draw or Arvand Khorramshahr FC
40%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+
33%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals
81%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
50%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
23%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
52%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
17%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
79%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.67 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.73 + Gol Gohar defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gol Gohar scores more
60%
level
24%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
16%

Gol Gohar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Gol Gohar 3–0 Arvand Khorramshahr FC

Gol Gohar beat Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3-0 in Azadegan League on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Imam Ali Stadium (Sirjan).