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Gol Gohar vs Aluminium Arak — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
5/24/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 28Gol Gohar Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Gol Gohar43%
×Draw30%
Aluminium Arak27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gol Gohar
1.15
Aluminium Arak
0.84

Gol Gohar creates 37% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 86 away

creates per match

Gol Gohar
1.28
Aluminium Arak
0.71

allows per match

Gol Gohar
0.97
Aluminium Arak
1.02

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw
73%
Gol Gohar or Aluminium Arak
70%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
57%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+
18%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals
68%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
32%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
11%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
57%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
21%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
62%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 100 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.28 + Aluminium Arak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Aluminium Arak attack 0.71 + Gol Gohar defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gol Gohar scores more
43%
level
30%
Aluminium Arak scores more
27%

Gol Gohar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gol Gohar vs Aluminium Arak

Aluminium Arak beat Gol Gohar 3-2 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Gol Gohar Sport Complex in Sirjan.