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Gokulam vs NEROCA — I-League 2019

Gokulam
Gokulam
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
NEROCA
NEROCA
11/5/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 2EMS Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gokulam57%
×Draw21%
NEROCA22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gokulam
2.05
NEROCA
1.19

Gokulam creates 72% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 45 away

creates per match

Gokulam
2.00
NEROCA
1.20

allows per match

Gokulam
1.17
NEROCA
2.11

finishing

Gokulam+0.00on par
NEROCA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gokulam ↓

NEROCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gokulam or draw
78%
Gokulam or NEROCA
79%
Draw or NEROCA
43%

Winning margin

Gokulam wins by 2+
34%
NEROCA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gokulam 1+ goals
87%
Gokulam 2+ goals
61%
Gokulam 3+ goals
33%
NEROCA 1+ goals
70%
NEROCA 2+ goals
33%
NEROCA 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gokulam (draw refunded)
72%
NEROCA (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gokulam at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

NEROCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gokulam attack 2.00 + NEROCA defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

NEROCA attack 1.20 + Gokulam defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gokulam scores more
57%
level
21%
NEROCA scores more
22%

Gokulam at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gokulam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Gokulam 4–1 NEROCA

Gokulam beat NEROCA 4-1 in I-League on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at EMS Stadium in Calicut, Kerala.