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Gokulam vs Mohun Bagan — I-League 2019

Gokulam
Gokulam
CANC
00:00
Mohun Bagan
Mohun Bagan
4/12/2020I-LeagueI-League · Round 22EMS Stadium (Kozhikode (Calicut), Kerala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gokulam30%
×Draw24%
Mohun Bagan46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gokulam
1.28
Mohun Bagan
1.66

Mohun Bagan creates 30% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gokulam
2.00
Mohun Bagan
2.14

allows per match

Gokulam
1.17
Mohun Bagan
0.57

finishing

Gokulam+0.00on par
Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gokulam ↓

Mohun Bagan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gokulam or draw
54%
Gokulam or Mohun Bagan
76%
Draw or Mohun Bagan
70%

Winning margin

Gokulam wins by 2+
13%
Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Gokulam 1+ goals
72%
Gokulam 2+ goals
37%
Gokulam 3+ goals
14%
Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
81%
Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
49%
Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Gokulam (draw refunded)
39%
Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gokulam at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Mohun Bagan away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gokulam attack 2.00 + Mohun Bagan defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mohun Bagan attack 2.14 + Gokulam defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gokulam scores more
30%
level
24%
Mohun Bagan scores more
46%

Mohun Bagan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Gokulam host Mohun Bagan

April 12, 2020: Gokulam take on Mohun Bagan in I-League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Gokulam host Mohun Bagan at EMS Stadium (Kozhikode (Calicut), Kerala).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.