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Gokulam vs Chennai City — I-League 2019

Gokulam
Gokulam
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Chennai City
Chennai City
1/9/2021I-LeagueI-League · Round 1Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Gokulam45%
×Draw24%
Chennai City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gokulam
1.66
Chennai City
1.36

Gokulam creates 22% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 16 away

creates per match

Gokulam
2.00
Chennai City
1.56

allows per match

Gokulam
1.17
Chennai City
1.31

finishing

Gokulam+0.00on par
Chennai City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gokulam ↓

Chennai City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gokulam or draw
68%
Gokulam or Chennai City
76%
Draw or Chennai City
55%

Winning margin

Gokulam wins by 2+
23%
Chennai City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gokulam 1+ goals
81%
Gokulam 2+ goals
49%
Gokulam 3+ goals
23%
Chennai City 1+ goals
74%
Chennai City 2+ goals
39%
Chennai City 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gokulam (draw refunded)
59%
Chennai City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gokulam at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Chennai City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gokulam attack 2.00 + Chennai City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

Chennai City attack 1.56 + Gokulam defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gokulam scores more
45%
level
24%
Chennai City scores more
32%

Gokulam at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gokulam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Gokulam 1–2 Chennai City

Chennai City beat Gokulam 2-1 in I-League on January 9, 2021.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.