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Gokulam vs Aizawl — I-League 2019

Gokulam
Gokulam
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Aizawl
Aizawl
3/14/2024I-LeagueI-League · Round 21EMS Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Gokulam51%
×Draw23%
Aizawl26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gokulam
1.89
Aizawl
1.30

Gokulam creates 45% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 66 away

creates per match

Gokulam
1.98
Aizawl
1.42

allows per match

Gokulam
1.18
Aizawl
1.79

finishing

Gokulam+0.00on par
Aizawl+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gokulam ↓

Aizawl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Gokulam or draw
74%
Gokulam or Aizawl
77%
Draw or Aizawl
49%

Winning margin

Gokulam wins by 2+
29%
Aizawl wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gokulam 1+ goals
85%
Gokulam 2+ goals
56%
Gokulam 3+ goals
29%
Aizawl 1+ goals
73%
Aizawl 2+ goals
37%
Aizawl 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gokulam (draw refunded)
66%
Aizawl (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gokulam at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.18 · 65 matches

Aizawl away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gokulam attack 1.98 + Aizawl defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.89

Aizawl attack 1.42 + Gokulam defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gokulam scores more
51%
level
23%
Aizawl scores more
26%

Gokulam at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gokulam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Gokulam 4–3 Aizawl

Gokulam beat Aizawl 4-3 in I-League on March 14, 2024.

The match was played at EMS Stadium in Calicut, Kerala.