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Goiatuba EC vs Aparecidense — Serie D 2026

Goiatuba EC
Goiatuba EC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Aparecidense
Aparecidenseadvanced
Alex Henrique 55'
Vinicius Tsimuta 5'
Dyego 63'
Julio Cesar 45'
Renan Gorne 39'
8/17/2025Serie DSerie D · Round of 16Estádio Divino Garcia Rosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Goiatuba EC41%
×Draw29%
Aparecidense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goiatuba EC
1.17
Aparecidense
0.96

Goiatuba EC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 41 away

creates per match

Goiatuba EC
1.33
Aparecidense
1.20

allows per match

Goiatuba EC
0.72
Aparecidense
1.00

finishing

Goiatuba EC+0.00on par
Aparecidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goiatuba EC ↓

Aparecidense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Goiatuba EC or draw
70%
Goiatuba EC or Aparecidense
71%
Draw or Aparecidense
59%

Winning margin

Goiatuba EC wins by 2+
17%
Aparecidense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Goiatuba EC 1+ goals
69%
Goiatuba EC 2+ goals
33%
Goiatuba EC 3+ goals
11%
Aparecidense 1+ goals
62%
Aparecidense 2+ goals
25%
Aparecidense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Goiatuba EC (draw refunded)
58%
Aparecidense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goiatuba EC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Aparecidense away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goiatuba EC attack 1.33 + Aparecidense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Aparecidense attack 1.20 + Goiatuba EC defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Goiatuba EC scores more
41%
level
29%
Aparecidense scores more
30%

Goiatuba EC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Goiatuba EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Vinicius Tsimuta
39'
Renan Gorne
45'
Julio Cesar
55'
Alex Henrique
63'
Dyego
Goiatuba
Aparecidense
Augusto Fassina
Manager: Augusto Fassina
Lúcio Flávio
Manager: Lúcio Flávio

Serie D: Goiatuba EC 2–3 Aparecidense

Aparecidense beat Goiatuba EC 3-2 in Serie D on August 17, 2025.

Goals: Vinicius Tsimuta (5'), Renan Gorne (39'), Julio Cesar (45'), Alex Henrique (55'), Dyego (63').

The match was played at Estádio Divino Garcia Rosa in Goiatuba.