Goias 0–1 Fortaleza EC: Result & Stats | Serie A

Goias

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fortaleza EC

10/1/2022

Serie A · Round 29Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Goias41%

×Draw27%

Fortaleza EC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoiasExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.16

Goias

1.34

Fortaleza EC

1.16

Goias creates 16% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 133 away

1.16

creates per match

1.02

1.30

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Goias

1.16

Fortaleza EC

1.02

allows per match

Goias

1.30

Fortaleza EC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goias+0.00on par

Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Goias or draw

68%

Goias or Fortaleza EC

73%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

59%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+

19%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals

74%

Goias 2+ goals

39%

Goias 3+ goals

15%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

69%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

32%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)

56%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.53 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.16 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Fortaleza EC attack 1.02 + Goias defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Goias scores more

41%

level

27%

Fortaleza EC scores more

32%

Goias at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff