Goias 1–0 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Goias

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Criciuma

Cadu 58'

4/7/2026

Serie B · Round 3Estádio da Serrinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Goias45%

×Draw28%

Criciuma27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoiasExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.93

Goias

1.29

Criciuma

0.93

Goias creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

1.42

creates per match

0.87

0.99

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Goias

1.42

Criciuma

0.87

allows per match

Goias

0.99

Criciuma

1.17

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Goias-0.21scores less

Criciuma-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Goias or draw

73%

Goias or Criciuma

72%

Draw or Criciuma

55%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+

20%

Criciuma wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals

72%

Goias 2+ goals

37%

Goias 3+ goals

14%

Criciuma 1+ goals

61%

Criciuma 2+ goals

24%

Criciuma 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)

63%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.17 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.42 + Criciuma defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Criciuma attack 0.87 + Goias defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Goias scores more

45%

level

28%

Criciuma scores more

27%

Goias at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

Airton

Criciuma · G

7.6

Match Events

37'

Lucas Lima

46'

Cadu← Jean Carlos

46'

Gui Lobo← Bruno Alves

46'

Hiago Alves← Marcinho

58'

Cadu↳ Anselmo Ramon

65'

Thiaguinho← Fellipe Mateus

66'

Leo Mana← Jean Irmer

71'

Romarinho← Diego Goncalves

82'

Bruno Savio← Anselmo Ramon

82'

Lucas Ribeiro← Gege

82'

Baldoria← Filipe Machado

88'

Juninho← Lourenco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoiasCriciuma

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots9

1.32Expected Goals (xG)0.74

6Corners7

9Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots9

3On Target1

7Off Target5

3Blocked3

8Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

460Total Passes393

377Accurate Passes323

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.59Goals Prevented0.59

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0