Goias 1–2 Athletic Club: Result & Stats | Serie B

Goias

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Athletic Club

Marcao Silva 53'

R. Tavares 90'

Neto Costa 41'

6/24/2025

Serie B · Round 13Estadio da Serrinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Goias47%

×Draw27%

Athletic Club26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoiasExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.00

Goias

1.44

Athletic Club

1.00

Goias creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.42

creates per match

0.99

1.01

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Goias

1.42

Athletic Club

0.99

allows per match

Goias

1.01

Athletic Club

1.45

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Goias-0.19scores less

Athletic Club+0.09on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Athletic Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Goias or draw

74%

Goias or Athletic Club

73%

Draw or Athletic Club

53%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+

23%

Athletic Club wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals

76%

Goias 2+ goals

42%

Goias 3+ goals

18%

Athletic Club 1+ goals

63%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

26%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)

64%

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.01 · 13 matches

Athletic Club away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.45 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.42 + Athletic Club defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Athletic Club attack 0.99 + Goias defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Goias scores more

47%

level

27%

Athletic Club scores more

26%

Goias at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Titi

Goias · D

8.3

Match Events

20'

Sidimar

29'

Pedrinho

29'

Rodrigo Gelado← Yuri

41'

Neto Costa↳ Douglas Pele

46'

G. Freitas← Baldoria

46'

Vitinho← Martin Benitez

46'

Arthur Caike← Pedrinho

52'

Adriel

53'

Marcao Silva↳ Vitinho

56'

Gonzalo Freitas

60'

AdrielRed card cancelled

65'

Ezequiel← Max

65'

Amorim← Welinton Torrao

67'

Marcão Silva

73'

E. Garcia← Welliton

76'

Diego Fumaca← Neto Costa

76'

R. Tavares← F. Martinez

90'

Jaja← Anselmo Ramon

90'

R. Tavares↳ Sandry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoiasAthletic

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots16

0.91Expected Goals (xG)1.60

4Corners4

17Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots16

4On Target4

6Off Target5

5Blocked7

11Inside Box7

4Outside Box9

Passing

47%Possession53%

274Total Passes335

191Accurate Passes248

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2