Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Goias vs America Mineiro — Serie B 2026

Goias
Goias
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
America Mineiro
America Mineiro
3/22/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 1Estádio da Serrinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Goias44%
×Draw30%
America Mineiro26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goias
1.21
America Mineiro
0.86

Goias creates 41% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 86 away

creates per match

Goias
1.46
America Mineiro
0.81

allows per match

Goias
0.92
America Mineiro
0.95

finishing

Goias+0.00on par
America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

America Mineiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Goias or draw
74%
Goias or America Mineiro
70%
Draw or America Mineiro
56%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+
19%
America Mineiro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals
70%
Goias 2+ goals
34%
Goias 3+ goals
12%
America Mineiro 1+ goals
58%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
21%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)
63%
America Mineiro (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.92 · 85 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.95 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.46 + America Mineiro defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

America Mineiro attack 0.81 + Goias defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Goias scores more
44%
level
30%
America Mineiro scores more
26%

Goias at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goias vs America Mineiro

Goias beat America Mineiro 3-1 in Serie B on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Estádio da Serrinha in Goiania.