Goias 1–0 Amazonas: Result & Stats | Serie B

Goias

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Amazonas

Rodrigo Andrade 4'

4/4/2025

Serie B · Round 1Estadio da Serrinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Goias51%

×Draw26%

Amazonas23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoiasExpected goals in this matchAmazonas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.91

Goias

1.50

Amazonas

0.91

Goias creates 65% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

1.34

creates per match

0.89

0.93

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Goias

1.34

Amazonas

0.89

allows per match

Goias

0.93

Amazonas

1.65

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goias-0.09on par

Amazonas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Amazonas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Goias or draw

77%

Goias or Amazonas

74%

Draw or Amazonas

49%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+

26%

Amazonas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals

78%

Goias 2+ goals

44%

Goias 3+ goals

19%

Amazonas 1+ goals

60%

Amazonas 2+ goals

23%

Amazonas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)

69%

Amazonas (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.93 · 20 matches

Amazonas away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.34 + Amazonas defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Amazonas attack 0.89 + Goias defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Goias scores more

51%

level

26%

Amazonas scores more

23%

Goias at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

Rodrigo Andrade

Goias · M

7.5

Match Events

4'

Rodrigo Andrade↳ Pedrinho

10'

Robertinho

20'

Ze Hugo← Pedrinho

26'

Lucas Ribeiro

46'

Fernando Neto← Robertinho

57'

Douglas SilvaCard upgrade

58'

Douglas Silva

58'

Lucas Lovat← Jaja

59'

Lucas Lovat

61'

Alex Sandro← Fabiano

70'

Carlos Akapo

77'

Rafael Gava← G. Freitas

77'

Breno Herculano← Arthur Caike

77'

Marcao Silva← Rodrigo Andrade

77'

Cocote← Rodrigo Varanda

77'

Vitao← Rafael Tavares

77'

D. Zabala← Henrique Almeida

86'

Breno Herculano

90+1'

Diego Zabala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoiasAmazonas

Overview

40%Possession60%

14Total Shots7

0.39Expected Goals (xG)0.70

8Corners2

16Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots7

2On Target2

7Off Target3

5Blocked2

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

237Total Passes370

179Accurate Passes311

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides5